The complex was seeing across the board losses of over 2.5 percent as of this writing in the overnight session on Tuesday amid weakness in equities with disappointing UK labor market data and after further doubt was cast on the US AstraZeneca trial data, as well as strength in the dollar. The gains came despite a bullish oil price forecast revision from Barclays.
Reuters reports that the Data Safety Monitoring Board, an independent committee overseeing the US trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine, has “expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data,” according to the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). In other unsupportive news this morning, UK jobless claims jumped 86,600 higher in February, well above expectations at 9,000 and pushing the claimant count unemployment rate up by a surprise 0.3 percentage points to 7.5%. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 0.3%, and the CAC 40 had lost 0.5%, while the DAX was off 0.2%. Asian markets fell overnight, with the Hang Seng dropping 1.3% lower, the Shanghai Composite falling 1.3%, and the Nikkei losing 0.6%. US stock market index futures were flat to lower this morning, with Nasdaq futures edging 0.1% higher but with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% and Dow futures down by 0.4%. Also unsupportive for crude prices, the US dollar index was rallying 0.48%. Market participants looked ahead to US new home sales figures for February, expected to show a slowdown from a 923,000 annualized pace in January, to 875,000.
Weakness this morning came despite news that British bank Barclays raised its 2021 oil price forecasts by $4/bbl to $62/bbl for WTI and $66/bbl for Brent. Barclays cited OPEC+ supply restraint amid uncertainty of the gradual demand recovery. The bank sees Brent averaging $71/bbl next year, with WTI prices rising to an average of $68/bbl.
Petroleum futures ended a see-saw Monday session slightly higher, amid mostly supportive trade in equities and a weaker US dollar index, while concerns over tighter coronavirus-related restrictions in parts of France and Germany likely weighed. Brent crude closed just 9 cents higher at $64.62/bbl and April WTI added 13 cents, settling at $61.55/bbl before going off the board. On the product end of the barrel, gains were slightly larger in percentage terms. RBOB futures added 1.67 cents, settling at $1.9598/g, and ULSD (HO) futures settled 70 points stronger at $1.8293/g. In the New York Harbor cash market, ULSD and ULSHO barge price differentials to NYMEX weakened yesterday according to Platts. The ULSD differential fell 10 points to -0.35c/g and the ULSHO differential dropped 80 points lower to -15.30c/g. HSHO barges remained 23.25c/g under spot NYMEX. March propane prices strengthened yesterday, according to Platts. Mt. Belvieu non-LST propane prices climbed 1.750 cents higher to 89.500c/g, LST prices jumped 1.875 cents higher to 90.250c/g, and Conway prices added 1.000 cents, hitting 83.500c/g.
Natural gas futures on NYMEX rose 4.7 cents on Monday, settling at $2.582/mmBtu despite generally unsupportive developments in the temperature and US supply-demand balance outlook. As of this morning, the latest 1-5 day ECMWF outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country, with double-digit deviations above normal (in degrees Fahrenheit) for much of the Northeast and for states near the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day forecast sees closer to, but mostly above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country.
