Petroleum futures were seeing losses of over two percent in the overnight session on Monday despite strength in European equities and in US stock market index futures, as well as weakness in the US dollar. It was a quiet morning on the economic calendar, with market participants looking ahead to US factory orders data and the ISM Services Index for further direction.
Saudi Arabia's state oil company raised its monthly Arab light crude prices for May to Asia by $0.40/bbl to $1.80/bbl over Oman/Dubai average. Aramco has also set its May OSP prices to the US at a premium of $0.85/bbl over the Argus Sour Crude Index, down $0.10 from April. Aramco also set its OSP for Arab light crude oil to Northwestern Europe to minus $2.40/bbl versus ICE Brent, down $0.20/bbl from April.
Asian stock markets closed higher overnight with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, the Nikkei adding 0.8%, and the Hang Seng rallying 2.0%. The Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in India fell from 57.5 to 55.4 last month, while forecasts called for no change. As of this writing, European shares were trading in the black with the FTSE 100 up 0.4%, the CAC 40 having added 0.6%, and the DAX having gained 0.7%. US stock market index futures were seeing gains of between 0.4% (Nasdaq f) and 0.7% (Dow f). Also supportive for crude oil prices, the US dollar index was down 0.1%.
Petroleum futures rallied on Thursday amid gains in US equities and weakness in the US dollar, despite an OPEC+ decision to gradually increase output beginning in May. WTI crude rose $2.29 to settle at $61.45/bbl and Brent crude jumped $2.12 higher to close at $64.86/bbl. RBOB futures added 6.26 cents, settling at $2.0223/g, and ULSD (HO) futures gained 6.18 cents to $1.8316/g. According to Platts, the New York Harbor ULSD barge differential to NYMEX weakened by 10 points to -0.20c/g, while HSHO and ULSHO barge differentials held steady at -25.10c/g and -15.25c/g, respectively. Also per Platts, Mt. Belvieu propane prices rose along with crude prices on Thursday as LST prices jumped 4.25 cents to 97.250c/g and non-LST prices added 3.125 cents to 95.500c/g. Conway spot prices went the other way and fell 37.5 points to 84.750c/g.
Natural gas futures rose 3.1 cents on Thursday, settling at $2.639/mmBtu amid a bullish weekly storage report from the EIA and a stronger two-week heating degree day forecast. The EIA reported an 18bcf injection into underground storage for the week ended March 26, below expectations at 21bcf. The latest 1-5 day outlook from the ECMWF sees above-normal temperatures across the majority of the country with large deviations above normal temperatures expected in the Midwest. The 6-10 day forecast is also unsupportive with above-normal temperatures seen across the eastern half of the country.
