Crude oil and refined products futures were trading just under the unchanged mark as of this writing in the overnight session on Thursday, following yesterday’s rally and with rising coronavirus cases in Asia. Losses this morning may have been limited with strength in European shares and in US stock market index futures, as well as further Middle East tensions. Market participants looked ahead to a number of US economic data releases for further direction, including industrial production, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales.
Reuters reports that a Houthi military spokesperson says the group launched another drone and missile attack in Saudi Arabia, this time at targets in the city of Jazan. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted four drones and five missiles, and that some debris had started a fire that was brought under control.
India and Thailand reported record coronavirus cases today, with over 200,000 in the former and 1,543 in the latter. Thailand is considering lockdown measures, Cambodia has placed restrictions in the capital, and Bangladesh has put in place week-long restrictions. Japan may cancel the Tokyo Olympics. The Hang Seng fell 0.37% overnight and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.52%, but the Nikkei added 0.07% and the Asia Dow rose 0.50%. European shares were strengthening following as-expected data on inflation. The German Consumer Price Index for March was left unrevised, up 1.7% year-on-year, as was the French CPI (up 1.1% year-on-year), and the Italian CPI (up 0.8% year-on-year). The DAX was up 0.26%, as was the CAC 40, while the FTSE 100 had gained 0.32% as of this writing. Ahead of a slew of US economic data releases, Dow futures were up 0.4%, as were futures for the S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures had climbed 0.6% higher. The US dollar index was steady.
The complex rallied yesterday, led by WTI, which shot up $2.97 to settle at $63.15/bbl. Brent crude gained $2.91, closing at $66.58/bbl. Weekly EIA crude oil and distillate stockpiles were bullish, and mostly higher trade in US and European shares was supportive as well, along with demand views expressed in the monthly oil market report from the International Energy Agency. RBOB futures gained 5.98 cents, settling at $2.0355/g, and ULSD (HO) shot up 7.55 cents to settle at $1.8900/g. The New York Harbor ULSD barge price differential to NYMEX rose 15 points to +0.00c/g yesterday, according to Platts, while the ULSHO differential weakened by 10 points to -15.50c/g. The HSHO barge price differential was unchanged at -25.75c/g. Whereas crude prices rallied yesterday, propane prices extended their sell-off. According to Platts, Mt. Belvieu LST and non-LST price each fell 2 cents to 76.875c/g and 77.250c/g, respectively, and Conway spot prices shed 50 points, falling to 70.750c/g. Weekly EIA inventories were neutral to unsupportive.
NYMEX natural gas futures settled just 10 points south of the unchanged mark yesterday, despite generally supportive developments in the temperature outlook. As of this morning, the latest 1-5 day ECMWF outlook calls for well-below-normal temperatures in some central parts of the country, and mostly near to below-normal temperatures on the East Coast, except for some above-normal levels in northern New England. The 6-10 day outlook is similar. The EIA is due to release its natural gas storage report for the week ended April 9 this morning, and a Reuters poll of analysts calls for a 67bcf injection. This would be similar to last year’s 68bcf injection, but well above the 26bcf five-year average.
