Crude oil and refined products futures were seeing gains of between 0.5% (Brent) and 1.1% (ULSD) as of this writing in the overnight session, with strength in US stock market index futures and reports of another attempted attack in Saudi Arabia likely supporting, whereas weakness in European shares and modest strength in the US dollar index were unsupportive. Market participants looked ahead to the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee Meeting (JMMC) and to economic data in the form of US housing market and consumer confidence figures for further direction. Options on May NYMEX ULSD (HO) and RBOB futures expire today.
Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a boat laden with explosives near the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The target may have been the oil tanker NCC Dammam, per unconfirmed reports received by security firm Dryad Global. Saudi state media did not say whether there was any damage from the operation to intercept the vessel, conducted by the Saudi navy. The OPEC+ JMMC is meeting today, a day earlier than previously planned, according to three OPEC+ sources, Reuters reports. It is unclear whether a full ministerial meeting will take place tomorrow, or if it will be pushed back until the end of next month.
Asian shares saw flat-to-weaker trade overnight, with the Shanghai Composite edging up 0.04% while the Hang Seng edged down 0.04% and the Nikkei shed 0.46%. European economic data this morning were encouraging, as Italian business confidence (Istat) strengthened more than expected (95.7) this month, to 97.3 from an upwardly-revised 94.2. Both the sub-indexes for manufacturing and consumer confidence also beat expectations (105.4 and 102.3, respectively). Market participants looked ahead to the US Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February (seen up 1.1% month-to-month) and to the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence Index for April (expected at 112.0) for further direction. As of this writing, US stock market index futures were flat to higher, with Dow futures off 0.01%, S&P 500 futures up 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.12%. On the other hand, the US dollar index was up 0.09%, which is slightly unsupportive for crude.
The complex settled mostly lower on Monday following the lifting of force majeure on loadings from the port of Hariga by the Libyan National Oil Corporation. Brent crude fell 46 cents, closing at $65.65/bbl, and WTI shed 23 cents, settling at $61.91/bbl. RBOB futures also fell, by 1.71 cents to settle at $1.9786/g, but ULSD (HO) futures edged up 50 points for a settlement at $1.8785/g. According to Platts, New York Harbor barge cash market differentials to NYMEX were steady for ULSD (+0.10c/g) and HSHO (-25.75c/g) yesterday, but the ULSHO differential weakened by 25 points to -16.25c/g. April propane prices went the opposite direction of crude futures yesterday, with Platts putting non-LST propane prices at Mt. Belvieu up one cent at 79.750c/g (LST prices up 50 points to 78.250c/g) and Conway prices up 50 points to 74.000c/g.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 6 cents to settle at $2.790/mmBtu yesterday, despite a loosening US market balance forecast for this weak and a weaker total degree day outlook for the next two weeks. The National Hurricane Center expects no tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next 48 hours.
