Petroleum futures were trading mixed near the unchanged mark in the overnight session on Monday with weakness in the US dollar supporting, while flat-to-lower trade in European shares and losses in US stock market index futures likely weighed on the price action. It was a quiet morning on the economic calendar with a quiet day ahead as market participants looked to US factory orders for further direction.
Reuters reports that OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing plan to boost oil output by 400kb/d in November, according to three OPEC+ sources. The group is scheduled to meet today. Also in the news today, the US Department of Justice is investigating suspected manipulation of energy pricing benchmarks published by S&P Global Platts, which would be the third case of alleged manipulation of Platts’ oil benchmarks brought by US authorities in the last year.
The Nikkei closed 1.1% lower and the Hang Seng dropped 2.2% overnight. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was closed due to a holiday and will remain closed until October 8. European shares were trading flat to lower this morning with the FTSE 100 steady, while the CAC 40 had edged down 0.1% and the DAX was off 0.2%. As of this writing, US stock market index futures were seeing losses of between 0.3% (Dow f) and 0.6% (Nasdaq f). In supportive news, the US dollar index was down 0.2%.
Petroleum futures strengthened on Friday with gains in US shares and weakness in the US dollar, despite losses in European equities and a rise of 7 in the US oil rig count. Brent crude closed 97 cents stronger at $79.28/bbl and WTI rose 85 cents, settling at $75.88/bbl. RBOB futures added 5.60 cents to settle at $2.2500/g and ULSD futures gained 4.42 cents to $2.3827/g. Biodiesel (D4) RIN prices rose from 144 to 149 cents on Friday. According to Platts, the ULSHO barge differential to NYMEX weakened by 2.40 cents to -13.75c/g, while ULSD and HSHO differentials held steady at +0.45c/g and -20.75c/g, respectively. The widening of the ULSD-ULSHO spread was consistent with the increase in D4 RIN prices. Also according to Platts, October propane prices rose along with crude on Friday. Mt. Belvieu LST prices rallied 4.000 cents to 148.750c/g and non-LST prices jumped 4.625 cents higher to 148.625/g. Conway prices rose 5.500 cents to 148.750c/g.
NYMEX natural gas futures settled 24.8 cents weaker at $5.619/mmBtu on Friday amid a looser US market balance expectation for this week, but despite a stronger two-week degree day forecast. The latest 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 day forecasts (EC) continue to be unsupportive with above-normal temperatures expected across the eastern two-thirds of the country. Hurricane Sam is still going strong in the Atlantic, but it is still expected to continue to move northeastward and away from land. Tropical Storm Victor has weakened to a tropical depression in the middle of the Atlantic, according to the NHC.
