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Petroleum futures were seeing gains of over 3.5% in the overnight session on Monday amid news of a progress in COVID-19 vaccine by Moderna, gains in European equities and in US stock market index futures. Market participants looked ahead to data on Canadian manufacturing sales and New York area manufacturing activity for further direction.
US Company Moderna Inc announced that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 in an early look at results from a large trial. Also in the news, OPEC+ compliance dipped from 101% to 96% last month when compensation cuts for past overproduction by some members were taken into account, according to an OPEC+ source.
Asian stock markets closed higher overnight as the Hang Seng added 0.9%, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.1%, and the Nikkei rallied 2.1%. Japanese GDP for the third quarter rose by 5.0%, above forecasts which called for an increase of 4.4%. Economic data from China were mixed. Fixed asset investment saw a yearly rise of 1.8%, above forecasts at 1.6%. Chinese industrial production rose 6.9% year-on-year last month, beating expectations at 6.5%. On the other hand, retail sales rose 4.3% y/y in October, below expectations at 4.9%. In European economic news, the Consumer Price Index in Italy rose 0.2% in October, matching expectations. European shares were trading in the black this morning with the DAX up 1.0%, the FTSE 100 having gained 1.8%, and the CAC 40 having added 2.2%. US stock market index futures were trading flat to higher as of this writing with Nasdaq futures down 0.1%, while S&P and Dow futures were up 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. The US dollar index was steady, as of this writing.
Petroleum futures weakened on Friday amid a rise of 10 in the US oil rig count and increasing Libyan oil output, despite strength in equities and weakness in the US dollar. WTI crude fell 99 cents to settle at $40.13/bbl and Brent crude lost 75 cents to close at $42.78/bbl. RBOB futures dropped 3.17 cents to $1.1254/g and ULSD (HO) futures fell 2.91 cents to $1.2042/g. According to Platts, New York Harbor ULSHO barge differentials to NYMEX strengthened by one cent to -8.25c/g, while HSHO barge differential weakened by 75 points to -15.00c/g. Also per Platts, November propane prices fell along with crude prices Friday as Mt. Belvieu LST prices fell by 1.125 cents to 55.250c/g and non-LST prices weakened by one cent to average at 55.750c/g. Conway spot prices fell by 1.25 cents, hitting 54.000c/g.
NYMEX natural gas futures edged up 1.9 cents to settle at $2.995/mmBtu on Friday amid a stronger two-week heating degree day forecast, despite a looser market balance expectation for this week and a bearish weekly storage report from the EIA. The latest 1-5 day forecast (EC) still sees above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and below-normal temperatures on the East Coast. The 6-10 and 11-15 day outlooks are less supportive with above-normal temperatures expected across the eastern half of the country.